Russia Plans “Fifth Column” in South Caucasus
Moscow’s Plan to Mobilize Russian Diaspora in South Caucasus Exposed in Leaked Report
A confidential Russian government report has revealed Moscow’s intentions to create a “fifth column” in the South Caucasus, targeting Russian-speaking populations in Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia. The leak provides documentary evidence of systematic plans to build social and political networks loyal to the Kremlin.
The fifteen-page document, dated December 2025, was authored by Yevgeny Kozhokin, a professor at MGIMO and former officer in Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service. Kozhokin has served on the Foreign Ministry’s commission on compatriots abroad since 2002, specializing in sociological and behavioral analysis of diaspora communities. The report, first published on January 24 by Michael Weiss of The Insider, is a managerial and policy-oriented text rather than journalistic reporting.
The report is part of a strategy under a new division in the Presidential Administration focused on “soft power” and humanitarian-political influence abroad. It emphasizes the Russian diaspora not merely as a cultural community but as a tool for foreign policy leverage and political mobilization.
Kozhokin divides the diaspora into three categories:
- Politically engaged and loyal individuals, ready for organizational mobilization.
- Ideologically uncertain or distanced individuals, particularly those skeptical after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
- Politically inert individuals, who maintain cultural ties but avoid political activity—the primary target for gradual “soft” integration.
The report identifies the South Caucasus as a strategically sensitive region. Azerbaijan is described as the most challenging environment due to strong state institutions and tight security oversight, which limits opportunities for informal influence. Armenia is seen as more accessible due to elements of democratic procedures and lighter state control, though Russian communities are small and socially isolated. Georgia is highlighted as a hub for post-war Russian emigration, hosting 15.5 percent of recent Russian emigrants, making it a priority for long-term engagement.
Key channels for influence include the Russian Orthodox Church, which should remain outwardly apolitical, and Sunday schools, considered effective for early socialization. The report stresses that overt propaganda should be avoided to prevent backlash. Russian Centers of Science and Culture (“Russian Houses”) are recommended to focus on youth and family programs, promoting Soviet-era nostalgia as a tool for symbolic integration while curating contemporary cultural content, including films related to the war in Ukraine.
The report also proposes engaging wealthy diaspora members—entrepreneurs and high-net-worth individuals—for financial support and institutional lobbying, and restoring connections with Russian universities after military hostilities end.
Overall, the document portrays Moscow’s diaspora policy as a structured instrument of geopolitical power projection rather than a humanitarian initiative, aimed at creating loyal networks capable of informal support for Russian interests across the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan, with strong state control, is classified as the most difficult environment for implementing these strategies.
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