IMF and World Bank Forecast Slower Growth Than Pakistan’s FY26 Target

ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Pakistan’s economic growth at 3.2 percent for the current fiscal year, falling short of the government’s target of 4.2 percent for FY26, according to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report.

The report also revised Pakistan’s outlook downward, showing a 0.4 percentage point decline in GDP growth compared to the Fund’s October 2025 estimates. Looking ahead, the IMF expects the economy to improve to 4.1 percent in FY27.

The World Bank has issued even more conservative projections, estimating Pakistan’s economic growth at 3 percent for the current fiscal year and 3.4 percent for FY27. Both international financial institutions’ forecasts remain below the government’s growth expectations, highlighting differences in economic outlooks.

Official figures from the Ministry of Finance indicate that Pakistan’s GDP grew by 3.7 percent during the first quarter of the current fiscal year, showing modest expansion in the early months despite global economic uncertainties.

The contrasting projections from the IMF, World Bank, and the Pakistani government underscore the challenges and optimism surrounding the country’s economic performance and policy measures in the months ahead.