Portugal Far-Right Leader Ventura Leads First-Round Presidential Polls but Faces Long Odds
LISBON: Far-right presidential candidate Andre Ventura has emerged as the frontrunner in Portugal’s first round of voting on Sunday, according to opinion polls.
However, regardless of who the Chega (“Enough”) party leader faces in a second-round runoff in February, he is widely seen as having little chance of defeating conservative incumbent President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.
Some polls point to a runoff between Ventura and Socialist Antonio Jose Seguro, while others suggest that Luis Marques Mendes, backed by conservative Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, could secure a place in the second round.
Among the 11 candidates — a record number — two others are also considered contenders for a runoff spot: Henrique Gouveia e Melo, a retired admiral who led Portugal’s Covid-era vaccination campaign, and Joao Cotrim Figueiredo, a liberal member of the European Parliament.
Although Ventura’s prospects of advancing beyond the first round remain limited, the election represents a significant milestone in his rapidly rising political fortunes since founding Chega in 2019.
The party, which is heavily centered on its leader, won 22.8 percent of the vote and 60 seats in a general election in May last year, making it the largest opposition force.
Portugal’s presidency is largely ceremonial, but the head of state holds powers during times of crisis to dissolve parliament, call elections, or dismiss the prime minister.
Ventura has said he ultimately aims to become prime minister, with analysts noting that he views Sunday’s vote primarily as a gauge of his popularity.
“Andre Ventura is running to keep his voter base,” said political scientist Antonio Costa Pinto of Lisbon University. “There could be a surprise increase,” he told media.
A stronger far-right showing would increase pressure on Montenegro’s minority government, which depends on Chega’s support to pass parts of its policy agenda.
Portugal, home to nearly 11 million people, is a member of the European Union and the eurozone, accounting for about 1.6 percent of the EU’s gross domestic product.
